The big takeaway? “ERS predicts that supermarket (food-at-home) prices will see normal to slightly-lower-than-average food price inflation, increasing 2.0 to 3.0 percent.”
“Meat prices will likely continue to experience the effects of the Texas/Oklahoma drought, Additionally, the effects of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) on the hog industry will be transmitted to meat prices in the immediate future. This forecast is based on an assumption of normal weather conditions; however, severe weather events could potentially drive up food prices beyond the current forecasts. In particular, the ongoing drought in California could have large and lasting effects on fruit, vegetable, dairy, and egg prices.”
Tuesday’s update noted that egg prices are about 8% above January 2014 levels, and that California’s Proposition 2 may affect retail egg prices across the country.